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Friday, September 5, 2014

Question authority

How big are US shale gas resources?

The US Energy Information Administration in this brief and in its 2014 Annual Energy Outlook says the US has abundant shale gas resources. Indeed, the latter report increases estimates of cumulative production of natural gas from 2012 to 2040 by about 11% compared to last year's outlook. Much of that is driven by record-setting production from the Marcellus, for which private analysts issue glowing projections.

Others think differently.

This provocative piece in Forbes claims that estimates of US shale gas resources are severely inflated, and that the bubble will pop sooner than expected, leading to an energy crisis. This one suggests caution on natgas exports, for many of the same reasons.

Who's right?  There's clearly a lot riding on the answer.

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